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In other words, expectations theory says that a steep yield curve predicts higher future short-term rates.

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If we look at the yield curve from this point of view, the two-year yield contains two elements:

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More specifically, when short rates rise, the spread between year and two-year yields tends to narrow curve of the spread flattens and when short rates fall, the spread widens curve becomes steeper.

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But consider the actual December yield curve illustrated above, which is normal but very steep.

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Fiscal Policy When the U.

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Well, the expectations theory says that long-term rates embed a prediction of future short-term rates.

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In environments of falling interest rates, many holders of mortgage-backed securitiesfor instance, have been hedging their prepayment risk by purchasing long-term Treasuries.

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